SUMMERTIME BLUES

As we enter June there are elections this week which will be very interesting and make popular viewing on the TV and reading in the media.

So many MP's have been exposed aswell as the greedy Bankers and we have yet to see all the public exposure ( ie BBC) aswell as the NHS, Police, Firemen etc.... These are trying times and with so many having to work hard just to stay solvent it makes many people very angry including me !!!!

The property market is just on the move with more lower priced sales and more mortgages being arranged. Lets hope it continues through the summer. There is even a hint that prices have stopped to fall any further. That being said it is still hard work.

The holiday season is now with us but travel agents ,tour operators and airlines are still struggling with some exceptions. If the weather is hot through the summer then a BBQ on the patio sounds a good idea.

I must say that people are looking a little more positive and hoping for a better road ahead.

SMOKE and MIRRORS

It seems that different views are coming from the newspapers. Some say we are at the bottom of the recession and others say green shoots of recovery are with us ! It is all like a river estuary whereby the river is running out when the new tide is starting to come in. Some parts of the economy will recover as others are still in a very painful state. The stock market and banks will recover quickest and evidence of both has been stated in the markets.

As to property prices some areas of the market are now moving slowly and depending on prices properties will sell. The travel market is on its knees and it is interesting that 20% of independant travel agents have closed in the last year. The big boys have reduced the holidays on offer and put up prices. So have airlines ( although they advertise that this is not happening).

It will be a quiet summer and time will improve the situation. Most people have lost a lot on their assets and savings and some may never recover. If you are young enough you will be able to change investment directions and make money over the next few years. Those who are older will not have the chance and will have to cut the cloth accordingly.

Let us hope that the weather is good for the summer - at least that will make us happier.

CUCKOO or BOO BOO

I have read in the financial papers that a sign of the first Cuckoo ( a sure sign of the green shoots of spring ) are being heard. In other words business is at the bottom of the market. Well the only Cuckoo I can hear is the one in my dining room, and thats every half-hour. I do not see signs yet of the bottom of the market. All results in the economy show difficult times and when the government collects much less tax into 2010 ( stamp duty, corporation tax etc ) further tax rises will give us less in our pockets.

As an owner of small business - the game is very tough and challenging. Every day I wake up and wonder what more losses can I sustain. The business that we are doing is helping us to bump along. We all stay happy and confident and hope business gets better soon.

I watched the G20 meetings on the TV last week. It was all very interesting but more showtime than reality. What real help will it give to small business. Not much !!!

The lighter evenings make us all feel better and more sunlight is good for us. This weekend will be Easter - a time for people to make plans for the summer ; gardening , building work or refurbishment at home or even planning holidays. The results from B & Q or the Retail High Streets will give an indication of spending. I think a there is a big push to pay off credit whether credit cards, loans . I have just reviewed my own asset and liabilities and have amazed myself how much reduction in credit I have achieved since the September 08 quarter day.

So , enjoy the Easter weekend and have a little rest time, the summer will also be hard work in business.

QUESTIONS

We have just arrived back from a few days on Exmoor, Somerset. We stayed at a charming Hotel : Ashwick House Hotel nestled deep in the countryside on the southern edge of the moors. We enjoyed our stay and were very well looked after.

Refreshed and batteries charged my first question is ; What is the difference between Big High Street Banks and Small Business owners. The bank employees (they are all employees) do not give any guarantees. Small business guarantee assets in lieu of finance to develop the business.

My second question is why do the media say the stock market index has risen in the last couple of days when underlying the index is 50% down from its height about eighteen months ago.

All business is suffering and the pensions value for the working folk of this land are now looking decidedly grim.

I was asked if the time was right for the Buy-to let business. I think yes on a cautious basis. Loans and mortgages are available but with 25.30% deposits. Those with cash can strike good deals and the lenders will be happy to assist. Banks after all are money lenders who are' herd like' in a growth market with real keeness to lend and are ruthless in difficult business times seeking extra charges and fees.

Easter is just around the corner and spring is now with us. The sun does make us all feel a bit happier and with all the business and working stress is does pay to take time out for a little relaxation.

My last question is who do you trust to get us all out of these present times. The Leaders of this Country give us a major doubt. I suspect we shall have to look after ourselves and manage our way to better times.

FALSE HOPES

Every week we hear in the media of some good business news and then a day later everything slumps again. The latest is the improved two months results fropm Citibank Corp , the largest bank in the world. So thats all right then and things will improve tomorrow about 10am. Huh !!! It will takes months to improve slowly and see an improvement. Everyone from savers to borrowers are feeling the pressure. The answer is to keep being positive and be happy. Life is a revolving door of success and failure. Even Warren Buffett is feeling the the strain of losses.

Clearly everyone is worried about house prices. There is a market although very slow from offer to completion at the moment. There are a few buyers looking and maybe dreaming of better days ahead.

As to the travel business ; customers are picking up the brochures in the hope they can get away in the summer. Sales are down about 25% against 2008 and costs are being monitered accordingly.
It has been a long hard winter and now that spring is here everything does look a bit better.

Conflicting evidence !!!

Every day we read the papers and watch the media tell different stories of how the credit crunch is doing. Things can only get better ( one day). In the meantime the answer is cut costs to the bone and give a brilliant service. It is a long hard slog up the road to better times. Life has always had boom and slump so we can be positive and look forward to better days ahead.

The banks are told by government to help small business. 60% of all UK workers work for small business. The banks only lend to small business with secured, mainly property, backing. So most of the time it is the banks who will eventually get the money back. The banks will all make good profits in 2010 but small business will take about 7/8 years to get back to a 2007 position. There are always exceptions .

So these are the rules and all small business can do is try and think one step ahead of the banks.
I deal with two main High Street banks in Business and Private. None of the managers have any discretion any more but they want to keep our business and their own jobs and perks in tact.
Life will change soon and maybe it is just around the corner.

I had a phone call from my stockbroker last week who said the market was on the move. It moved all right down over 300 points. Good call. Just remember stockbrokers get paid on the buy and sell commission. They want the market to keep moving up or down. They will always say ' now is the time to buy' . How much have pension funds lost on the stock market - trillions. There must be a better way to build up a pension for the ordinary everyday worker.

WHAT CRISIS !!!

The Chinese translation for crisis is - danger and opportunity. So thats ok then.

January recorded a slight rise in mortgages arranged and Estate Agents report that more people are registered seeking property. However the first time market is still stagnant . Buyers are unable to raise the 10% mininum deposit plus fees required. Finance house say that more money will be pumped into the market. This will help but it will still take time. The employment news is not good and the general confidence of business managers and workers is not good.

I am receiving daily emails inviting me to have a new credit card. Who wants to pay 21% !!!! Also bank managers ( everyone is a bank manager working in those sales organisations) have started to make calls to customers. Maybe to see how the customers are bearing up or to sell one of the many products that the bank push.
Spring is just around the corner and everyone will feel better. Those who are positive and pay attention to business management will pull through these challenging times.